When Cash Registers Go Quiet
Initial reactions to the presidential election
I work part-time for a local businessman who owns and operates several local businesses. This man, who happens to be an ardent Trump supporter, is suddenly in a severe panic mode.
Why? It is because since the election results became known sales in all of his stores have suddenly dropped dramatically — by over 40%! This businessman is utterly beside himself in fear. He fully expected the opposite to occur. He thought the “good news” would result in a buying spree.
This so-called businessman is only half my age. (I can’t believe I’m working for him except for the fact that I’ve got to pay the rent.) He was still in high school when 9–11 happened.
I was already middle-aged and I was running my own business when the Twin Towers fell. I owned a successful bookstore in a small town in Colorado. I very vividly remember exactly what happened to my business right after 9–11. Sales in my store dropped by a little over 80% for the following month.
Why? Because the nation; the people — and that meant the people in my community — were in shock. What happens when one is in shock? Well, one of the first things that happens is that you stop buying things. How can you enjoy shopping when you are in a state of shock? Seriously? And who reads while in a state of shock?
Well, right now — just as after 9–11 — the people of America are in shock. They are in an extreme state of shock at the election results and collectively people don’t come out of a state of shock very quickly. It takes time.
While my young, inexperienced boss is freaking out big time, I try to reassure him but he just doesn’t listen to anybody.
Don’t be surprised when in the next few weeks the news reports will be full of reports of how the economy has come to a standstill; how the American public has stopped buying things as they are gripped with fear of the future and as divisions among people become agitated and there are violent emotional reactions. Don’t be surprised if the NASDAQ drops to its knees ready to vomit. Don’t be surprised if the economy takes a baseball bat to the side of the head. Don’t be surprised if you see your investments take a shellacking. Don’t be surprised when people all around you start freaking out.
It’s a temporary thing. Like I said, it takes time to come out of shock.
I personally witnessed this from a business viewpoint after 9–11. Back then it took months to recover.
This time the intense state of shock our country has been thrust into is a little bit different. With 9–11 Christmas was still a long ways off but with the intense shock of this election the Christmas season is only weeks away. While the business world goes into panic mode as their cash registers get unbelievably quiet, relief is in sight.
Once Americans unbuckle their belts after their Thanksgiving Day feast they will go into the extreme buying mode that they have been conditioned to go into after the last bit of turkey and stuffing is forced down their throat. The natural conditioned reaction to all that eating is to buy, buy, buy, buy…..
Christmas will have arrived. Suddenly, the economy will seem to halt its nosedive and seem to recover — at least to some degree. The newspapers and pundits will rejoice and proclaim a victory for Trumponomics.
When a nation is in shock they stop buying. When they forget and celebrate with tons of food and copious amounts of alcohol they start buying again. This pattern is repeated religiously throughout America’s history. So when you see it happening don’t be surprised that I first predicted it right here on Medium.
What happens in January, however, cannot yet be predicted….
